Not sure in which category this would belong so I selected “Feature Request”.
The suggestion would be to collect like on a monthly or weekly basis the number of classic challenges or grand challenges that are played, and how many were succeeded (ie. player reached the 12 wins).
This would be interesting to evaluate the impact of balance changes or of the introduction of new cards / new evolutions on the “game winnability”. Not sure this is the appropriate word here, but my “theory” is that there is a risk of “breaking” the game if SC introduce too many different cards with many different / changing capabilities. I mean, there is no guarantee that you can find a deck that will always give you a high percentage chance of outperforming the competition, with a reasonable skill level. Let’s take an example. Assume 2.6 is a very good deck in the current meta, because it can cycle fast, face almost any deck composition. But suddenly because of a new evolution (that give a big advantage to opponent every now and then), this deck is no more winnable consistently. As a result the 12-win stats for this deck would fall. But this could happen for all decks in the CC/GC meta, meaning that the overall 12-win stats will fall in general, less and less players will be skilled enough to win CC/GC. I wonder if this is already happening btw, when you see the latest CRL challenge (my feeling is that fewer players managed to get the badges).
As an example of “unwinnable” game, I can refer to the game of rock-paper-scissors with 101 weapons (see RPS-101 on umop.com). This is just classical RPS, but you have a choice among 101 weapons. Assume you pick 8 to build your deck, your chance of success is always and only 50% at each game whatever your “skill”. So your chance of doing 12 wins is on average 1/2^12 (chance of 12 wins) + 1/2^13 * 12 (chance of 12-1) + 1/2^14 * 13 * 12 / 2 (chance of 12-2), ie. 1 chance every 154 attempts, roughly 0.65% (confirmed with Python script given by ChatGPT ).
Some more stuff to collect related to the 12-win stats:
- Distribution (and frequency) of all CC / GC outcomes (#win / #loss = 0/3, 1/3, 2/3, …, 11/3, 12/2, 12/1, 12/0).
- Average ELO to reach 12-win stats (to see the trend on the skill required to reach 12 win).
In any case, tx for your amazing site, using code “royaleapi” (almost) every season.